The COVID-19 led recession is sharper and deeper than any other in living memory and is having a disproportionate effect on Melbourne’s economy.

To begin planning the local economy’s recovery, the City of Melbourne sought data on the substantial impact of COVID-19

PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) was engaged to complete economic modelling on the impacts of COVID-19 on the City of Melbourne and Victoria. The modelling forecast the economic impact of COVID-19 over a five year period.
Understanding the likely depth and duration of the
economic downturn will help guide our ongoing efforts in
Melbourne’s recovery.
The modelling accounts for Stage 3 and 4 restrictions and
assumes a slow economic recovery with prolonged public
health measures in place into 2021.
This prolonged recovery, marked by a greater awareness
of public health risks and fewer employees returning to
workplaces, will have a protracted impact.
The modelling shows that this recession will largely be
a central city recession. As Figure 1 shows, the City of
Melbourne will bear the brunt.
This recession is forecast to be sharper and deeper than
any observed since Australia has collected consistent
economic data.
The data shows that, compared to pre-COVID19 forecasts,
the City of Melbourne economy will be up to $23.5 billion –
or 22 per cent – smaller in 2020.
As Figure 2 shows, there will be a cumulative reduction of
up to $110 billion in municipal economic output compared
to pre-COVID estimates over the next five years.
Over five years, there will be up to 79,000 fewer jobs than
pre-COVID forecasts as an annual average.

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